So, we will begin with a quote from Taleb on (Karl) Popper:
“Why is a theory never right? Because we will never know if all of the swans are white…”
The binary options available in a coin flip create as much uncertainty as most people can process, quantify, or even accept.
I sat once, over 25 years ago, listening to my 2 closest friends debate the mechanics and probabilities of a coin flip.
After one suggested that everything is connected, thus all coin flips in the universe determine the “odds” while the other firmly expressed his belief that all coin flips, like all spins of the Roulette wheel, are individual.
At the time I traded on a proprietary basis for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce as the youngest VP in their history. My system was based on whether volatility was expanding or contracting so I did circa 100 trades a day to ‘scalp’ tiny fractions of profit from the relationship between US dollars and various currencies.
Their argument was the basis for my own theory on every matter associated with, adjacent to, and aligned with ‘what might happen’ within the next few minutes.
Every few minutes.
I ignored their debate because I knew they both clung to their beliefs on a rational matter in irrational ways because of the fear they perceived of the consequences something like a coin toss might produce. You see, they saw everything this way: binary. In black and white. There was no gray area. For either of them. Anywhere.
Something was either true or it was not. Someone was either guilty or they were not.
Their simple explanation of the universe did not extend to lottery tickets though. They agreed on and believed in the odds marketed to them and summarily rejected, in unison, the idea that a ticket is either ‘a winner or a loser’ thus the odds of ‘winning’ (ignoring the size of the prize) were 50:50.
I studied this point and wrote about it in 2017 while I analyzed the global irrationality behind everyone wanting ‘More’ without knowing what will actually satisfy them.
The ticket is 50:50 after the draw. Either a winner or a loser, prize excluded. Now, argue that with yourself for a while and it will dawn on you: from something in SuperPosition ie Schrodinger’s Cat and the guy in Dark Matter to the race for POTUS (and frankly the OFFICIAL nominations) are all theoretical until you do the equivalent of the checking the ticket.
When someone is sworn into the Office of POTUS, especially in this race, we can name POTUS. Until then, I am afraid it is all theoretical.
For example, if it is a belief that they who concedes is the loser, then please refer to 2020 when there was no concession.
Also, there is Death Watch. The idea that either ‘candidate’ could not make it to November 5th. Or the winner might not make it to Inauguration. Stranger things have happened?
Sure.
Ask The Boston Red Sox in 1986.
2 Outs. Bob Costas, in Ken Burns Baseball explains they were lining the Red Sox locker room with Saran Wrap and icing the Champagne. Now, you do not have to be a fan of any sport to appreciate what happened.
Because IT WAS ALL THEORETICAL.
Game 6, in the 1986 WS by the wasy, was ALSO the game where someone parachuted onto the field. What, were the odds, of THAT?
Back to now, I guess.
So, as the odds makers and bookies and statisticians and analysts and probabalists (yes, I made that word up) and maybe-ists wake up and begin to babble incoherently, please remember that FEW actually understand how the Universe deals with anything beyond binary.
The odds of hurricanes before the start of hurricanes season, the LEFT taking seats in Macron’s gamble election (what were the odds of that? Quite high if you think that because it happened before it can happen again but that is not the way it works either), and The Orioles being in first place at The All Star Break (if you want to learn odds making and such, Baseball is a great place to start- just DO NOT watch the games).
You could talk to Stefanie Dolson as she watches 5x5 Basketball at the Paris Games instead of playing. She previously won a 3x3 Gold for the USA but like Caitlin Clark is NOT on Team USA this time around.
There are the odds of Switzerland beating defending Champions Italy in Euro 2024. Or Brazil crashing out of the Copa America on penalties while Canada warm up to play Argentina for the second time in a 3 year period.
The point?
IT IS ALL THEORY.
Until you get some skin in the game and do what is the equivalent of ‘buy a ticket’.
Oh, the joke?
Francis prays every day for a Lottery Win. Finally, their deity descends and says: ‘buy a ticket please’. Francis says: ‘Now I have to pray for a buck too’?