The 2024
Insert candidate here
Warning- The following might make you scream.
Recent news out of the United States regarding women's rights and abortion/anti-abortion rights/bans/legislation is mixing with a rise in Christian Nationalism and States’ rights arguments and SCOTUS to make sure the Republicans take the Executive branch in 2024.
In other words, the way the electoral vote, overlaid with current data sits, the 2024 election for POTUS has been decided.
Whomever the Republicans nominate, unless the Democrats fight back, will win.
Here’s why this might be true.
According to NPR the following States have abortion bans in place:
Idaho (4 electoral votes to the GOP in 2020).
South Dakota (3 electoral votes to the GOP in 2020).
Yes, I’m suggesting that the agenda to overturn Roe v. Wade and encourage States to create abortion bans was part of a Christian Nationalist And Right wing agenda to lock in 2024 electoral votes and seal the Presidency before they have a candidate. I’ll go on because it gets interesting.
Wisconson (10 electoral votes reclaimed by the SCOTUS ruling).
Georgia is the only other state the GOP lost in 2020 that has an abortion ban now. 16 electoral votes.
Ohio (18 electoral votes won by the GOP in 2020).
Missouri (10 electoral votes won by the GOP in 2020).
Kentucky (8 electoral votes won by the GOP in 2020).
Arkansas (6).
Tennessee, 11.
Oklahoma, 7.
Louisiana, 8.
Texas, 38.
Mississippi, 6.
Alabama, 9.
Kansas, 6.
So, the GOP won 144 electoral votes in 2020 from States that now have abortion bans. If these are locked in before November 2024 and Georgia and Wisconson are also won, then the Republican candidate for POTUS already has 170 electoral votes. Before we know who the candidate is. Reminder: the winner needs 270. Also, the theory does accept that these become 1 issue States? Until we see the ads we don’t know but it’s not too far fetched that abortion and guns will be the front of the line in terms of issues. My gun position analysis piece is next. After that, I’ll be looking at All on THE Line and how gerrymandering is factoring in.
So, back to how the GOP are trying to lock up electoral votes before they have a candidate for 2024 POTUS race.
In States where abortion bans are either pending or on hold, the GOP candidate in 2020 won 37 of a possible 70.
Utah (7).
Iowa (6).
Indiana (11).
West Virginia (5).
South Carolina (9).
North Dakota (3), Wyoming (3), Arizona (11), Michigan (16) all have bans pending or on hold about to be challenged in courts. If the GOP can secure all of these states as well as the previous list? That’s 240 electoral votes. Even if they perform as they did in 2020, that’s 181 electoral votes.
In Michigan, that had a pre Roe ban from 1931, a judge ruled, this week (NPR 7TH September) that it is/was unconstitutional.
In Arizona, the possible ban is in a Tuscon court.
The analysis from those 21 states is interesting. Scary but not damning for a Democratic ticket.
I believe the landscape shifts when we consider what I’m calling 3 suspect (Florida, Oregon, and Vermont) and 3 danger (North Carolina, Nebraska, Montana) States.
Suspect because Oregon and Vermont both have indentured servitude/modern slavery referendums on their November 2022 ballots seeking to overturn existing laws. If these are upheld in any State amongst the 5 (Alabama, Louisiana, Oregon, Tennessee, and Vermont) where this is a 2022 issue then that implies a shift to Conservative thinking. Including Florida (the GOP won 29 electoral votes in both 2016 and 2020) , suspect states add up to 39 electoral votes. Even without Oregon (7) and Vermont (3) and a considerable likelihood that Florida will go the GOP, that is 268 electoral votes.
278 if they all go the GOP.
In 2020, the Republican incumbent ticket got 232.
From danger states, North Carolina (15), Nebraska (4), and Montana (3), there sit 22 electoral votes that the GOP won in 2020.
That would be 300 electoral votes. Is that a landslide?